Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Kim Skipper for House ...

Please join Mayor Dan Sullivan, Assemblyman Bill Starr, Scott Hawkins, Mary K. Hughes, Linda Leary, Henry Penny, Patrick Rumley and me this Thursday in supporting Kim Skipper for State House.  With over 30 years of private sector accounting experience, and service as both a legislative aide and community volunteer, Kim can make an immediate impact in both understanding the numbers behind state government and working to bring down state spending.  The event is from 5 - 7pm at the Petroleum Club, 3301 C Street.

If you don't know Kim, please take this opportunity to come meet her; if you do, please take this opportunity to give her your support.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Defending Alaska's Interests ...

A story on the Alaska Business Monthly website reports on upcoming testimony by Rep. Charisse Millet and Alaska Oil & Gas Conservation Commissioner Cathy Foerster before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee ("Millett to Testify to U.S. Senate Energy Committee on Neglected BLM North Slope Legacy Oil and Gas Wells").  They have been asked to testify this Thursday "on the lingering problem of the unplugged and environmentally harmful exploratory oil and gas wells drilled by the federal government within the National Petroleum Reserve – Alaska."

These are the wells that the federal government has drilled and left behind unplugged in NPRA.  In some instances, the wells are leaking natural gas; in some others, small quantities of oil.  Rep. Millett sponsored -- and the Alaska Legislature passed -- a resolution during the past legislative session, calling on the BLM to plug the wells properly and reclaim the lands as soon as possible.

It is rare for state legislators and regulators to be asked to testify before a full Congressional Committee in DC.  It often happens during field hearings held in various parts of the country, but rare for a legislator or regulator to be asked to appear before the full committee in DC.  The last legislator from Alaska may have been John Torgerson, when in the Senate.

Rep. Millett's and Commissioner Foerster's appearance indicates both the significance of the issue, and the respect they have gained for their pursuit of it.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Only half the issue ...

Richard Mauer's lead article in today's ADN ("Tea Party goes after Senate coalition") reports on efforts by the Tea Party and others to defeat incumbent Republican State Senators who, they believe, have contributed to the approaching Alaska fiscal crisis by joining the so-called Bipartisan Senate Coalition over the last two legislative sessions.

If that accurately reports on the intention of the various Tea Party groups, they are focusing on only half the problem.  While the Senate has been problematic in achieving oil tax reform, the House also has been culpable on fiscal issues.  As discussed elsewhere on these pages (see Alaska Fiscal Policy|  Where We Have Gone Wrong), according to the University of Alaska's Institute of Social and Economic Research, the current "maximum sustainable" level of state spending from the General Fund -- the level that can be sustained indefinitely into the future even after oil runs out -- is roughly $5.35 Billion.  Money spent above that level is essentially coming from future Alaskans, by reducing the amount of the "nest egg" on which future Alaskan's will be able to rely.

To put it another way, if the current generation of Alaskans choose to spend $6 Billion for a few years, then future Alaskans will have only $4 Billion available to them once oil production declines.  The longer current Alaskans spend at rates above the current sustainable level, the less future Alaskans -- the current generation once it reaches retirement, our children and our grandchildren -- will have available to sustain them.

For those that think the Senate alone is creating this problem, its time to think again.  For this fiscal year, the state's Operating Budget, which originates in the House, is $5.67 Billion, an amount which alone exceeds the "maximum sustainable" spending levels identified by ISER.  Based on a continuation of the programs approved in recent budgets, the state Office of Management & Budget estimates in its "Baseline" Budget -- before "initiatives" -- that the Operating Budget will grow to $6 Billion in five years, and $6.7 Billion in ten.

And, its not like the House hasn't added to the size of the Capital Budget.   The House was the source of the $2.5 million (reduced to $2 million by the Governor) included in the 2011 Capital Budget that is funding the "Great Alaska Shootout Ticket Spree."  In a lesser reported story, the House also was the source of an additional $17 million appropriation to the UAA Sports Arena made in the final days of the 2011 session, that resulted in an overall appropriation of an additional $34 million to the Arena, rather than the $17 million initially approved by the Senate.

Clearly, there are "FINO's" (Fiscal conservatives In Name Only) in the Senate.  The same problem, however, exists also in the House.  The light should shine evenly on both.

Friday, July 6, 2012

Want to learn more about heavy oil and Alaska oil tax policy ...


Alaska Business Monthly July 2012 - July 2012

Alaska Oil| The July edition of the Alaska Business Monthly is in the stores now.  It contains a strong oil & gas section this month, featuring an article on Repsol, a commentary on natural gas by Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson and two commentaries on North Slope oil, one by Mike Bradner on heavy oil and the second on Alaska oil tax policy ("Ships Passing in the Night") by ... me. The oil & gas section is not yet available online, so pick it up in the magazine rack the next time you are in Carrs, Barnes & Noble, etc.

Cathy Giessel for State Senate ...

Please join me and others next Friday (July 13) at an event for State Senator Cathy Giessel. For me, this election turns on electing legislators that are committed to developing a sustainable state fiscal policy. Senator Giessel shares that commitment. The event runs from 5 - 7:30 pm.

The Problem with the Alaska Dispatch ...

In a piece published earlier this week (Alaska Dispatch: The risk of rattling the cages), the Alaska Dispatch's Editor Tony Hopfinger uses an event at a fundraiser to defend the Dispatch's recent oil reporting.  In the piece, Hopfinger claims that he -- and the Dispatch -- are writing from the perspective of "Alaska Inc. ... the owner of hundreds of billions of dollars of petroleum and mineral resources."

Frankly, the article helps to explain much of what has gone wrong at the Alaska Dispatch.

In its early years, the Dispatch appeared to want to be a news source, approaching oil and other issues without bias or perspective.  The result was impressive; under oil reporters Rena Delbridge and Patti Epler, the Dispatch became the go to source for information and insight into oil and political issues affecting the state. 

I encouraged my firm to advertise on the Dispatch in order to support and associate with what I considered to be outstanding reporting.  I described the Dispatch to friends and others as Alaska's version of Politico, a national publication that I believe is the best at reporting on politics and policy at the federal level.  And I also wrote and polished pieces that I hoped were good enough for publication in what I considered one of the most important outlets for reasoned thought in Alaska.

Something happened along the way, however.  With the departure of Patti Epler, the Dispatch ceased focusing on being a pure news source, at least on oil issues.  Instead, it appeared to change roles and, as Hopfinger now describes it, sought to become a voice for "Alaska Inc."  It no longer delivered the news in an unbundled package.  Instead, the news it reported started coming mixed with editorial commentary in a way that made the reader (at least me) wonder about whether the actual news was being reported fully or fairly.

That approach might have been fine -- and even welcome -- if, as with The Economist, for example, the Dispatch brought a clear economic mind to the discussion.  But it has not; instead, it has become much more like a mirror version of the old Alaska Standard, publishing, at least from its own writers, a muddled and more often than not, emotional, rather than closely reasoned view of things.  Rather than Politico, the Dispatch now much more resembles the New Republic.

Hopfinger's view of the current discusion around oil taxes is a case in point.

In the article, Hopfinger argues that until the producers commit "to developing enough additional oil to make up for the billions of dollars of loss to our state treasury ... I and some on my staff will keep questioning Gov. Sean Parnell’s push to 'reform' state oil taxes."

Hopfinger does not explain in his extended piece, as would The Economist, why that best serves the interests of "Alaska Inc."  Frankly, we can easily think of why that could not be the case.  Encouraging continued investment, even if it resulted in reduced tax revenues to state government, could result in overall economic activity that better mirrored the current state of the industry in other parts of the US (e.g., North Dakota) and the world (e.g., Norway).  While Alaska state government might not realize as much, overall Alaska GDP could be higher.

Moreover, reduced government take also could lead to the increased exploration and discovery of new resources on state lands.  Alaska's current exploration tax credit policy, as embodied in ACES, is a dead end road.  ACES significantly subsidizes exploration activities to be sure, but reverts to the higher rates when its time to develop anything the exploration efforts have identified. 

The result is that only minor industry players have made extended use of the exploration provisions.  Their hope, to be honest, is to find something that they then can sell to bigger players, in a manner similar to the hope that startup software companies have that they can sell any new ideas they develop to Google or Microsoft.  That hasn't happened, however, again because the higher ACES rates would apply to any such development.

Reduced production taxes could entice more substantial players into making more substantial exploration investments, and more substantial players to invest in the development of any exploration plays the smaller companies might find.

Hopfginer's piece analyzes none of these alternatives.  Instead, he -- and the Dispatch -- simply want something for nothing. They want industry to guarantee continuation of the same revenue stream to state government, regardless. In his view, the state shouldn't make any "concessions" until that guarantee is achieved. Its as if the revenue levels resulting from ACES were written on golden tablets of some sort and are, now, inalienable rights.

The available evidence suggests, however, that the result of the current ACES revenue levels will be the exact opposite from what Hopfinger claims to want. Industry investment will continue to stay at minimum levels as long as the tax levels remain the same. Production will contnue to decline, and Alaska "Inc." will continue to realize increasingly lower revenue levels.

But that argument is largely beside the point about what has gone wrong with the Dispatch.  What has gone wrong is that the Dispatch has turned from what it once excelled at -- being a source for pure news -- to now requiring that its readers take a bundled dose of opinion along with the Dispatch's version of the news.  The fact that the opinion is muddled only adds to the problem. 

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

"The Pledge," Legislative Ethics and Incumbent Legislators

An interesting item appeared in the most recent edition of The Advisor, the bi-monthly publication of the Alaska Legislative Ethics office.  In an article on the second page, the office provides notice of a "New Advisory Opinion Request," specifically focused on the "signing of pre-election pledges by incumbent legislators."  The subject apparently was first discussed at the June 14, 2012 meeting of the Legislature's Select Committee on Legislative Ethics.  Coincidentally, my piece, "A Statute and a Pledge: A Potential Approach for Addressing Alaska’s Coming Fiscal Crisis," was published on June 17.

According to The Advisor, the question that the Committee has posed is:
Does the signing of a preelection pledge, by an incumbent legislator, in exchange for a campaign contribution or endorsement or a promise of a campaign contribution or endorsement, violate the provisions of the Legislative Ethics Act -- specifically AS 24.60.030(e)(1). 
That statute provides that "A legislator may not ... agree to ... take or withhold a legislative, administrative, or political action, including support or opposition to a bill ... as a result of a person's decision to provide or not provide a political contribution, donate or not donate to a cause favored by the legislator, or provide or not provide a thing of value."

The Committee states in the notice that it "anticpate[s] a meeting soon" to discuss the topic.  We will watch the developments closely.  It will be interesting if, in the name of ethics, the Committee protects legislators from signing pledges during their campaign that enable their constituents to know how the legislator will vote if elected.