Friday, July 6, 2018

A Facebook Conversation on Oil Tax Credits

Yesterday we engaged in an extended discussion of oil tax credits with a strong supporter of the "pay them all now" (by issuing bonds) approach taken in HB 331.

As readers of these pages will know, we oppose that approach because it kicks the costs down the road to a future period when Alaskans likely will be even less well positioned to pay for them than now and, according to DOR's own projections, increases the ultimate cost of the program. 

As we have written elsewhere, the resulting cost of the maneuver also may be as much as $900 million more if, as is likely, future legislatures fill the near term fiscal space created by the bonding approach with additional government spending on other things. See "How a “Good Deal” Quickly Becomes a Bad Deal for Alaskans" (May 2018).

The discussion yesterday began with a post by us commenting on a response we had received in another forum from a director of one of the oil companies that will benefit from HB 331. A reader of these pages then joined the issue by starting the comment string that followed.

We think, in its course, the discussion did a useful job of outlining the reasons why some support HB 331, and we oppose it.
Some argue Alaska's right to reduce #OilCredit payments during $$oil downturns was in the "fine print". But it was in the same statute (in the same print) that created the program. Co's knew the risk from the start. They just wanted the state to overlook when it happened. #akleg
Steve Cinelli They did know the risk, and they know the States track record, but Mikes point is legit. Pay the credits and lets get back to work.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Hmmm, a self contradiction. They knew the risk, but "Mike's point is legit." 

If it's work we want, then let's pay the remainder of the PFD first. Cutting that has the "largest adverse impact" on the overall Alaska economy. Let's take care of ALL Alaskans first. Then we can start worrying about those sectors wanting additional, special treatment, like the health care (Medicaid Expansion) and oil service industries (accelerated payment of oil credits).
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Steve Cinelli The part you dont understand ia that the credits arent a gift. The state wanted to incent exploration. They passed the bill as that incentive. Industry responded, and found billions of barrels. Now the State has hung industry out to dry. Thats bullshit. Absolute bullshit.
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Steve Cinelli Now that the Statr got theirs they need to uphold the deal. When they pay the credits we can put Alaskans back to work and end end the fiscal problem. 500mbd of nee production solves every problem we have. Every. Single. One. The unions will be happy with pirk barrel spending. The PFD can be funded. Everyone goes back to work.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Steve ... And the part you -- and Mike -- don't understand is that the state reserved the right during periods of low revenues to reduce payments subject to a minimum. That was in the statute, the companies agreed to it as part of entering the program

But when the risk arose and the time came to implement that provision, the companies didn't want to man up and accept the terms. Notwithstanding that the statute was clear, the companies didn't want to accept the terms. They wanted the state just to overlook it. 

As for jobs, one more time, cutting the PFD has the "LARGEST ADVERSE IMPACT" on jobs. If industry really was so concerned about Alaska jobs they would have stepped up to support that; they didn't. Instead, they just wanted the state to give them a special break while other segments -- and the state overall -- continues to suffer.

Finally, as to your 500 MBD comment, that's the real BS laying on the floor. If that's really there, others -- like Oil Search has -- will come in to finance it's development without accelerated payment of the credits. The fact that no one has at Smith Bay and elsewhere speaks volumes about what others in the industry think of it's commerciality. They -- and their bankers -- just want the state to look the other way now that the price risk they accepted at the time has come due.
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Steve Cinelli We understand it. Thats not tge issue. The first is trust. Why come to AK when the State is disingenous. 2. The tax credits wont pay for developing the field. They MIGHT pay for some reasonable interrogation of the reservoir to bring on investors. That was the whole point of the program.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets "We understand" the risk. But the industry doesn't want to live up to it. The state wasn't disingenuous. It lived up to its end of the bargain. It's the companies that don't want to. 

And yup, you just proved the point. The fields aren't ready for pri
me time. Especially at these price levels, if knowledgable industry money thought they were worth the money it takes for additional interrogation and development they would fund it. Oil Search has. The others haven't attracted knowledgeable industry money. This whole program has been full of over hyped rhetoric. The "500 MBD" is just one more example.
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Steve Cinelli Given the rock quality in portions of the slope and the size of the discoveries 500mbd is entirely possible. There are z2 wells all over the west GDWFI that make 30 mbd. 10 good wells would be 300mbd. If we pay the credits we will get the oil. All the reserves in the world dont help up if its left in the ground.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Steve ... As we said, that's the real BS in this discussion, "if we pay the credits we get the oil." That's been the promise this entire program. Hasn't happened yet. 

If knowledgable industry money thought there was 500 MBD laying there for the picki
ng, it would be all over it. They aren't. Both the state and industry should finish out the program on the terms to which each originally agreed. The industry should stop whining, and the state should stop being gullible.
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Steve Cinelli I dont know what to tell you. Despite what some want us to think there is no vast oil industry conspirarcy to screw Alaska. This is a terrible place to do business. The legislature is full of idiots. God knows that the legislature never misses a chance to screw with taxes. The weather and environmental scrutiny is a NIGHTMARE. Finally, it truly is the most expensive place on earth to do business. I know exactly what the real lifting costs in various locals are. I cant tell anyone because it confidential, but the slope is brutally expensive. Thereis a reason the State has lease sales in active basins and no one bids.
However, despite the self inflicted political damage, there is no doubt about the potential quality and size of the basin. Few people who arent genuine in the rock geos or petroleum engineers have any understanding how massive that basin is. That is a big lure.
Oil companies are in business to make money. They went looking to find money. They found it, and an integral piece of the business plan were the credits. If we pay the credits we can make some money. Otherwise we are screwed.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Steve ... Heard the rhetoric before. Hugely long on promises; hugely short on delivery. 

Both the state and companies should live with the terms of the program they agreed. Just like happened with Oil Search, if there is something there, knowledgeable 
industry money will find its way. The fact it hasn't elsewhere its a good indication they don't believe the rhetoric either.

Industry isn't getting "screwed." They agreed to the terms of the program and the price risk. But when those occurred they nevertheless want to jump to the front of the treasury window before the overall economy and even Alaskan citizens. Shouldn't happen; hopefully won't.
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