The economic analyses published these last two years consistently have reached the undisputed conclusion that cutting the PFD, which seems to be the knee jerk reaction of some whenever the state's fiscal situation makes the headlines:
- "Has the largest adverse impact on the economy [of all the new revenue options] per dollar of revenues raised," https://goo.gl/ZxR1Hw at A-15;
- Is "by far the costliest measure for Alaska families," https://goo.gl/ivf9D2 at 1; and
- "[W]ill likely increase the number of Alaskans below the poverty line by12-15,000 (2% of Alaskans)," https://goo.gl/iuTjv2 at 14.
But, as we also have said repeatedly if we nevertheless are headed down this road it should be done with the least damage and disproportionate effects possible. We believe that replacing both the Senate and House proposals (both the PFD cut and income tax components) with a single flat tax -- a tax that imposes an equal distributional burden regardless of income class -- does exactly that.
Neither S&P's nor Moody's have suggested that cutting the PFD is necessary, or even appropriate. Frankly, they don't care what Alaska does to get its state finances back in order. Their only concern is that we do.
But Alaskans should care because we have to live with the consequences. And making the situation even worse for our overall economy and Alaska families is the last -- the very last -- thing that any should be thinking about doing.
But Alaskans should care because we have to live with the consequences. And making the situation even worse for our overall economy and Alaska families is the last -- the very last -- thing that any should be thinking about doing.
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